A new health advisory from the U.S. Surgeon General connecting alcohol to cancer could lead consumers to rethink their drinking habits — and the industry is bracing for any potential impact.
Outgoing U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy outlined on Jan. 3 links between alcohol consumption and cancer. He noted that an individual’s risk of developing cancer from alcohol consumption is driven by a complex mix of biological and environmental factors.
“Alcohol is a well-established, preventable cause of cancer responsible for about 100,000 cases of cancer and 20,000 cancer deaths annually in the United States — greater than the 13,500 alcohol-associated traffic crash fatalities per year in the U.S. — yet the majority of Americans are unaware of this risk,” Murthy said.
The health official noted established correlations between alcohol consumption and several forms of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus, liver, mouth, throat and larynx. Murthy added that a person’s risk of cancer can increase with just one or fewer drinks per day.
In the full advisory accompanying the surgeon general’s statements, the Department of Health and Human Services pointed to 2019 data that found only 45% of Americans recognized the link between cancer and alcohol.
The industry responded to the advisory by acknowledging the health risks of drinking, but stressed the complexity of health outcomes arising from booze consumption.
In a statement released last week, the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States said the surgeon general’s advisory did not review “broader health outcomes” and pointed to studies finding only a risk between alcohol and breast cancer.
“The current health warning has informed consumers for decades about health risks broadly, and it is the federal government’s role to determine any proposed changes to the warning statements based on the entire body of scientific research,” the spirits council said. “The industry is committed to following all laws and regulations that govern our labeling.”
In a note to investors, TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow said that beverage producers should prepare for some blowback from the report as some consumers put more distance between themselves and alcohol. He said the surgeon general prioritized the report’s release ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration to call attention to the issue before Murthy is likely replaced.
“While it’s too early to know whether the incoming [presidential] administration will make this a priority, we view it as another reason to believe U.S. per capita [alcohol] consumption will stagnate in the near-to-medium term and for investors to exercise caution in this sector,” Moskow said.
Proponents of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement — spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Trump’s nominee for secretary of Health and Human Services — could influence policy during the next four years, demonizing alcohol producers and mandating more warning labels on alcohol labeling, Moskow predicted.
The TD Cowen analyst also said the alcohol lobby will “aggressively” fight against heightened regulatory scrutiny. Beer companies such as Molson Coors and AB InBev have the most to lose from the advisory as they have already lost ground with younger consumers amid the rise of ready-to-drink cocktails and cannabis, according to Moskow.
The surgeon general’s advisory was released during Dry January when many people eschew booze for the month. Makers of nonalcoholic adult beverages think the heightened scrutiny of the health effects of alcohol can serve as a gateway for consumers looking for an alternative, particularly Gen Z who are drinking less than previous generations.
